Monday 2 March 2026 · Supplement to Edition 1 · Issued Same Day
Third consecutive session up. Single-day gas move: +32.6p/therm. Amber threshold breached decisively.
The following prices reflect today's single-session change versus Friday's close.
per kWh · was 2.638p Friday
+0.987p/kWh in one session
per kWh · was 7.070p Friday
+1.98p/kWh in one session
Today's session delivered one of the sharpest single-day spikes in UK wholesale gas prices in recent memory. The trigger is now confirmed: over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran — an operation now being referred to as Operation Epic Fury — killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. Iran responded by declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed, and tanker owners, oil majors, and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel, and — critically — liquefied natural gas shipments through the waterway.
This is the direct mechanism connecting a Middle East military conflict to your UK energy bills. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important energy chokepoint: more than 20% of global oil and a substantial share of global LNG flows through it daily. With LNG cargoes that would ordinarily divert to UK and European terminals now unable to transit, European gas supply tightened severely at the weekend open. NBP April-26 surged +32.6p/therm in a single session, closing at approximately 110.8p/therm (3.78p/kWh), up from 77.9p/therm at Friday's close.
UK electricity tracked gas directly upward — Q2-26 power closed at approximately £90.5/MWh (9.05p/kWh), up from 7.07p/kWh on Friday. TTF, the European gas benchmark, mirrored the move precisely: up 37.7% to 43.76 EUR/MWh. This is not a UK-specific aberration — it is a continent-wide repricing of energy risk in a single session. ICE Brent oil closed at $78.54/bbl, having briefly touched $80 over the counter on Sunday when futures markets reopened.
All prices in p/kWh. Reference: 500,000 kWh annual consumption. Day move = today's single-session change only.
* Impact on 500,000 kWh annual consumption. A 1M kWh business doubles these figures; a 5M kWh portfolio multiplies by 10.
+1.096 p/kWh
on 500k kWh
+2.275 p/kWh
on 500k kWh
500k kWh per month equivalent
+£202,272/year at today's level
If you are currently unhedged or partially hedged for any period in 2026, today's prices are now materially higher than any quote you may have seen in January or February. Rates offered this week will reflect today's wholesale level — and suppliers will be watching for further moves before releasing pricing.
If you have a contract expiring within 90 days, you are in the window where your default rollover risk is greatest. An unmanaged rollover at today's market level could represent tens of thousands of pounds in avoidable cost versus rates available just last week.
If you are already fixed beyond 2026, this is validation that your decision to fix was correct — and your current contract is now delivering significant value versus open market exposure.
Identify any sites with contracts expiring Q1–Q3 2026. These are your highest-priority exposures today.
Do not wait for Friday's bulletin. Request market quotes now — supplier rates may change within 24–48 hours as the spike either confirms or partially reverses.
Consider a staged approach: fix 50–70% of your volume now to capture cover, leaving headroom to benefit if prices retreat.
Identify the cause of today's spike before committing fully. If it is weather-driven and short-term, a partial pullback is possible. If supply infrastructure is involved, sustained high prices are the more likely scenario.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the single variable that will determine whether this week's prices represent a ceiling or a floor. There are two credible scenarios — and your procurement response should account for both.
Strait closure extends beyond 1–2 weeks. Iranian retaliation escalates. LNG diversion to Asian buyers continues. Brent approaches $100–$120/bbl (UBS, Barclays). UK gas holds above 100p/therm. Today's prices become the new floor.
Ceasefire or maritime corridor agreed within days. OPEC+ output increase (206k bpd from April) stabilises oil. US strategic petroleum reserves released. Atlantic LNG routes partially compensate. Partial pullback to 80–90p/therm possible.
This is the only variable that truly matters this week. Every day the Strait remains closed, the supply deficit compounds. Watch for any announcement of a humanitarian maritime corridor, IAEA involvement, or back-channel ceasefire negotiations. Reopening — even partial — would trigger a sharp correction. Continued closure confirms Scenario A pricing.
OPEC+ agreed Sunday to add 206,000 barrels per day from April — a modest 0.2% of global demand. This is too small to offset Hormuz disruption (estimated 8–10 million bpd loss) but signals Gulf producers are available and willing to act. Watch for emergency OPEC+ meeting calls this week if prices push toward $100/bbl.
Asian LNG (JKM) jumped over $6/MMBTU today to approximately $17/MMBTU. Track whether Atlantic-route LNG from US Gulf and Qatari western terminals begins diverting toward Europe. If Atlantic cargoes accelerate into UK terminals, the gas spike moderates. If Asian buyers continue outbidding European importers, UK prompt gas stays elevated regardless of how oil settles.
If NBP holds above 100p/therm at Tuesday's open, Scenario A is confirming. If it pulls back sharply below 90p/therm on news of diplomatic progress, a staged buying window opens. Do not wait for Friday's bulletin if you have unhedged exposure in Q2 or Summer 2026.
Will contain the full week's analysis, a resolved scenario assessment based on how the Strait situation develops, and updated procurement recommendations. An additional Flash Alert will be issued mid-week if market conditions change materially.
For immediate procurement support, contact us via any of the channels below.